As the long-awaited ceasefire begins in Lebanon, it seems as good a moment as ever to ask the big question - Who started it, and why?
Depending on where you go in the world and who you talk to, every participant in the crisis and every world power seems to have its own hidden agenda - so here's a brief guide to the agenda-benders.
Hizbollah: The obvious party to blame for initiating the current fighting, by capturing two Israeli soldiers just over a month ago. Most observers of the group believe they expected Israel to do a prisoner swap, and did not expect the conflict to escalate, but some suggest they had their own interest in ramping things up.
Who says? Many Israelis.
Why? To cement their reputation in the Muslim world as the only force able to take Israel on. Set up under Israeli occupation, the military/political party needs someone to fight, and the Shiite group may be feeling the competition from al-Qaeda linked Sunni groups.
Israel: While Ehud Olmert's government may not have picked the timing, there have been accusations that the abduction of the soldiers provided the pretext for an assault already on the drawing board.
Who says? Some Israeli analysts; most Arab and Muslim commentators - but see below.
Why: Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon did not stop Hezbollah's rocket attacks across the border, and the prevailing view in Israel has been that the militia will have to be dealt with sooner or later.
Iran/Syria: As Hizbollah's principal sponsors, did Tehran or Damascus give the green light for the capture of the soldiers, thereby triggering the conflict?
Who says? Israeli and US politicians, from President Bush down.
Why? Iran to distract attention from the dispute over its nuclear programme; Syria to maintain its influence after the humiliation of its forced troop withdrawal from Lebanon earlier this year - and to show what a mistake that was.
USA: Washington's been accused of blocking a UN ceasefire resolution to give Israel time to finish Hizbollah off - but now some are saying the White House was in on the planning stage too.
Who says? Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad, in his new blog, asks his readers whether Israel and the US are trying to start a new world war. But someone a bit closer to what's going on in the White House has given this theory a boost - Seymour Hersh writes in the New Yorker that Israeli government officials visited the White House in May to get a green light for the bombing of Hezbollah's bases in Lebanon.
Why: Partly because Washington sees Hezbollah as part of the global Islamist terror threat, but also - according to some of Hersh's government sources - as a prelude to any US attack on Iran's nuclear institutions, preventing Hizbollah retaliating against Israel.
So has anyone got what they wanted? Well, it's early days yet, but so far Hezbollah have emerged heroic in the eyes of their support base, after taking on the might of the Israeli army. Israel has failed to crush Hezbollah, but may have begun a UN-sponsored process that could reduce the cross-border threat. As far as Iran's concerned, the world's attention has been taken off the nuclear issue, but that may not be much help if Seymour Hersh is right about the US agenda. Then again, Israel's inability to destroy Hezbollah may discourage the neocons from believing Iran can be easily dealt with by a bit of aerial bombing.
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